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一 | TYRE, Lebanon -- More than 4,200 people have been displaced from villages in south Lebanon by clashes on the border with Israel, and local officials said Friday that they are ill-prepared for the much larger exodus that would ensue if the the limited conflict escalates to an all-out war.Some 1,500 of the displaced are staying in three schools in the coastal city of Tyre, about 20 kilometers (12 miles) north of the border.As children ran through the courtyard and women hung out clothes to dry on chairs at one of those schools on Friday, Mortada Mhanna, head of the disaster management unit of the municipalities in the Tyre area, said hundreds of newly displaced people are arriving each day. Some move on to stay with relatives or rent apartments, but others have no place to go besides the makeshift shelter, while Lebanon's cash-strapped government has few resources to offer.“We can make the decision to open a new school (as a shelter), but if the resources are not secured, we’ll have a problem,” Mhanna said. He appealed to international organizations to "give us enough supplies that if the situation evolves, we can at least give people a mattress to sleep on and a blanket.”The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and allied Palestinian groups in Lebanon have launched daily missile strikes on northern Israel since the outbreak of the latest Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 7, while Israel has responded by shelling border areas in south Lebanon. To date, the clashes have killed at least 22 people in Lebanon, four of them civilians.Sporadic skirmishes continued Friday while a number of airlines canceled flights to Beirut. Countries including the United States, Saudi Arabia and Germany have warned their citizens to leave Lebanon.For many of the displaced, the current tensions bring back memories of the brutal one-month war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006, during which Israeli bombing leveled large swathes of the villages in south Lebanon and in Beirut's southern suburbs.The tactic of overwhelming force to strike civilian infrastructure as a measure of military deterrence was dubbed the “Dahiyeh Doctrine,” named after the area south of the capital that was targeted.Should another full-blown war erupt between Hezbollah and Israel, “even the city of Tyre will no longer be safe ... because all of the south was subject to bombing” in 2006, Mhanna said.Among the school's temporary residents is Mustafa Tahini, whose house in the border town of Aita al Shaab was destroyed in 2006, along with most of the village. Back then, aid flowed into Lebanon from Qatar and other countries for reconstruction, but this time, Tahini said, “God knows if someone will come to help us.”“I am not a political analyst. I hope things will calm down, but the things you see in the news aren't reassuring,” said Tahini, whose wife and children are staying with relatives in Beirut while he remains closer to home. Still, he said, he is mentally prepared for another war. “We've been through it before.”Sixty-two-year old Nasmieh Srour from the town of Duhaira has been staying in the school with her husband and two daughters for a week, along with many of the village's residents. Like Tahini, she was displaced in 2006; she is also stoic about the prospects of a wider conflict.“Maybe it will get bigger, maybe it will calm down - there’s no way to know," Srour said. Should the displacement become protracted, said Edouard Beigbeder the representative in Lebanon of UNICEF, the U.N. agency for children, said education will be one of the main casualties. Already 52 of the 300 schools in south Lebanon are closed due to the hostilities, leaving more than 8,000 children out of education in addition to those enrolled in the schools that are now being used as shelters, he said. A wider conflict would also threaten key infrastructure including electric supplies and, by extension, water supplies.“In any escalation," Beigbeder said, “it is the most vulnerable and the children who are (left) in dire situation.”。本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、伊朗炮弹炸到华尔街，原油短期难结束，美股压力加大； 2、华尔街新潮流：投资AI干不掉的行业（聊聊电网）； 3、军工和海运能走多久，参考特朗普的时间表如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。

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三 | 1、伊朗炮弹炸到华尔街，原油短期难结束，美股压力加大今天中东战火仍然是关注的焦点，而且已经烧到了第二层。伊朗的反击力度显然超出了市场预期——它的炮弹不仅炸到了美国在中东的军事基地，还在霍尔木兹海峡击中了英国和美国的三艘油轮，导致这一关键水道实质性瘫痪。

四 | 霍尔木兹海峡是全球最重要的原油运输通道之一，如今无法通行，这将从底层动摇全球对经济稳定性的信心。除此之外，伊朗的部分代理人似乎也开始“复活”：黎巴嫩真主党重新对以色列发动轰炸，使战局更加混乱。因此，到目前为止，我们可以说这已不简单是一次炮火升级，而是直接把炮弹炸进了金融市场，炸到了美国华尔街——打中了美国的软肋。今天大家看到，美股期货市场开盘就出现1.5%的大幅下跌。特朗普在过去一年多时间里屡次透露出他的软肋就在金融市场。现在，似乎有人正针对他的“阿喀琉斯之踵”发起攻击。单纯比拼军事实力，伊朗确实会被摁在地上摩擦；但一旦危及美国金融市场、引发股市波动，这就不再是简单的军事得失问题了。